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ESWATINI’S NPL RATIO HIGHEST IN CMA

By NOMFANELO MAZIYA | 2024-05-05

THE Central Bank of Eswatini Governor, Dr Phil Mnisi, has raised a concern as the non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio within the common monetary area (CMA) rose by 2.6 per cent.

This is month-on-month and a substantial 7.4 per cent year-on-year to reach E1.1 billion by the end of January 2024.

The Common Monetary Area is a currency union established in 1986 between Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia and South Africa.

Mnisi expressed particularly considering the current accommodative monetary policy during the media engagement dubbed ‘Tea and Coffee with Governor’ at MTN club house.

NPLs occur when borrowers fail to repay loans and rising NPLs indicate potential financial stress within the banking sector.

Mnisi emphasized the worry this trend brings, especially considering the recent low-interest-rate environment intended to stimulate economic survival during the COVID-19 pandemic. He acknowledged outliers and isolated cases with extremely high NPLs. However, Mnisi highlighted that a random sampling of NPLs would see a significant reduction of the average to around three per cent, suggesting a potential concentration of bad debt among specific borrowers. The governor attributed the rise in NPLs to the low-interest rates during COVID. “What led to that was the low interest rated during COVID-19 as central banks were very accommodative to create survival,” said the governor. This easy access to credit may have led some borrowers to take on more debt than they could afford. As interest rates rise, a ‘sensitivity analysis’ shows potential borrower strain as loan repayments become more expen Despite the NPL challenge, the governor indicated a positive aspect. He expressed that Eswatini boasts a relatively stable inflation rate of around four per cent, significantly lower than the double-digit inflation plaguing some neighbouring countries. This demonstrates a degree of economic resilience, according to the governor. “Our inflation is around four per cent (less than five) while other countries are battling with 33 per cent inflation. When inflation is this high it means the value of money is eroding very quickly,” said Mnisi. He underscored the complex relationship between inflation and interest rates.

“We need to understand the balance of financial stability and price stability when speaking on loans,” he said. While rising interest rates can help manage inflation and protect the value of money, they can also burden borrowers struggling with affordability, according to the governor. Mnisi further identified middle and upper-income earners as the primary borrowers facing NPL issues. “In most cases it is an affordability matter and is always informed by a certain pattern and expenditure pattern in the household is normally the one that makes people live beyond their means,” said Mnisi.

CBE aims to bolster reserves, maintain over E10 billion mark

The Central Bank of Eswatini (CBE) is actively exploring strategies to strengthen the country's foreign currency reserves, setting a target to maintain the above E10 billion and three months imports cover.

This initiative, announced by CBE Governor Dr. Phil Mnisi comes in response to current reserve levels which, while holding steady at E10 billion, approximately 2.6 months of import cover in April 2024, fall short of the desired three-month benchmark.

Foreign currency reserves act as a financial safety net for a nation.

They provide a buffer during economic downturns, allowing for essential imports to continue even when export earnings decline.

The governor acknowledges that the current reserve level, while stable, is not ideal for long-term economic health.

Mnisi highlighted the disparity between Eswatini's reserves and regional benchmarks.

The Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) target reserve levels of 4 and 6 months of import cover, respectively. The CBE aspires to reach these levels in the future, fostering greater economic resilience, according to the governor.

He emphasised the importance of an export-driven economy as a key factor in achieving sustainable reserve levels.

“I spoke about an export-led economy and it is then when we are going to be able to sustain levels of reserves and import cover at the range of six months and above,” said Mnisi.

Increased exports generate foreign currency inflows, directly contributing to higher reserves and import cover, according to the governor who further suggested that if Southern African Customs Union (SACU) receipts were retained instead of being rapidly depleted, reserves could be significantly bolstered.

He also recognised the impact of government spending patterns on reserve levels.

Mnisi acknowledged the government's high expenditure and its tendency to quickly deplete reserves hence CBE positions itself as an advisor to the Ministry of Finance, advocating for sustainable funding solutions.

“We are looking to help the minister of finance look at some sustainable funding that won’t increase the cost of borrowing,’ said Mnisi.

The E4 billion listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) serves as an example of a preferred borrowing strategy, according to the governor.

He said this method allows the government to raise funds without significantly increasing borrowing costs.

He emphasised the importance of directing borrowed funds towards investments that generate returns, contributing to capital formation and economic growth, rather than solely financing consumption.

“Borrow on a sustainable level, maintain your cost of borrowing and these borrowings must go into investable assets instead of consumer expenditure because that does not create capital formation,’ said Mnisi.

The Central Bank of Eswatini's focus on building foreign currency reserves is a positive step towards ensuring long-term economic stability

“The Central Bank of Eswatini continues to explore opportunities to build reserves through accumulation of foreign currency export proceeds from local commercial banks,’ committed the governor.

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